ARE YOU PREPARED TO CASH IN AS UGANDA DEVELOPS ITS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?

BY MOSES SSERWANGA As Uganda moves steadfast to put locally made cars on the market for the first time in 2018 many Ugandans are wondering how they could benefit from a budding automotive industry when it finally takes off. What they need to know is that the car just like any other locally manufactured product has many components or parts that can be sourced locally and therefore offer huge opportunities to the local parts fabrication suppliers. A car, on average, has over 30,000 parts by the time it leaves the production line and this will not be any different when Kiira Motors Corporation (KMC)’s much anticipated Vehicle Production Plant is set up in Jinja next year. While major carmakers the world over, source car parts from a broad range of global automotive suppliers overseas, in Uganda with the availability of abundant natural raw materials for car production, enterprising Ugandans should be prepared to cash in on the economic opportunities that will be created across the country’s nascent automotive industry. Already, the country is promoting the Buy Uganda Build Uganda (BUBU) policy which encourages local content participation, a good strategy if fully and well implemented. The policy will very much be part of the national industrialization agenda and the automotive sector can take the lead in the realization of this ambitious government development program. The BUBU initiative should, therefore, continuously be fast tracked to enable local sourcing of services and consumables that are essential for the consolidation of Ugandan components in the automotive supply chain. This is because the country is endowed with a variety of rich minerals that are key to the successful implementation of the car manufacturing sector. Among the minerals that are abundant across the country include copper and cobalt deposits in the border district of Kasese, gold in the areas of Mbarara, Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri,Kanungu,Busia, MubendeHoima and parts of West Nile,Iron ore in Mityana and lead in Kamwenge.Other raw materials needed for car manufacturing like lithium can be found in Kabale, Mukono, Mbale and Mubende; tin, zinc, kaolin, glass and sand are all locally available. The challenge now is for the government to facilitate the business minded Ugandans to benefit from these natural resources across the automotive value chain. There is no doubt that promotion of local automotive value chain enterprises willbe a very important tgovernment intervention that will lead to the creation of jobs and spread wealth among a wide spectrum of the population. Car body builders, vehicle canopies for pick-ups, fiber glass components manufacturers, leather seats makers, after sales car service providers like garages, fuel stations should all prepare to seize and benefit from the economic opportunities that will come with the development of the automotive sector. Fortunately, there are already many young men and women in the areas of Katwe, Nsambya and Namuwongo who are involved in the interior upholstery business, an established industry since there is relatively high demand for transformation of service vans into passenger mini vans that are the main form of public transport in Uganda. These young Ugandans who are beating all odds to participate in the development of the Ugandan auto industry need every support that government can offer. In order to have as many Ugandans benefit from these prospects, there is also need to have a targeted skills development and training program which must be responsive to the technical requirements in the automotive manufacturing business. There is a need to develop and rollout specific curriculum for the automotive industry at our higher education institutions of learning. With the Ugandan economy facing a huge task to absorb some 392,000 new entrants into the labor market and the growth rate in the youth labor force now standing at an estimated at 5.7 percent annually, the automotive industry could as well be a very good entry point in mitigating some of these national development challenges. The writer is a Media and Communications Consultant /trainer and Advocate of the High Court of Uganda. msserwanga@gmail.com This article can also be found at:msserwanga.blogspot.com

ALL IS NOT LOST ON GEN. MUGISHA MUNTU

By Moses Sserwanga So it came to pass when Gen. Mugisha Muntu could not beat the odds and lost the Forum for Democratic Change ,(FDC) Party presidency . But to many political pundits Gen. Muntu’s humiliating defeat having worked tirelessly to build the party structures and mobilise from the grassroots was not by surprise . Ever since he assumed the FDC party leadership Gen. Muntu ‘s leadership style and his background having been the e army commander for close to a decade was never accepted by the radical wing of the FDC led by Dr. Kiza Besigye . While the Muntu and his liberal supporters believed in the leadership of peaceful engagement , mobilization from the grassroots to create a mass base of supporters and putting in place party structures that can out live individuals, on the other hand the Besigye faction was hell- bent at the politics of defiance , confrontation and violence which prescribes to “an eye for an eye” principle. At the end, the two opposing forces could not be accommodated within the same party and it was apparent that one had to give way and the radicals had an upper hand this time round . And yet ,this was not the first time a senior member of the FDC party was being shown the door for having contrary principles , ideology and political tactical maneuvers to those of Dr. Kizza Besigye . Beti Kamanya experienced similar political mortification when she dared to take on Besigye . She left the party a frustrated, bitter woman and now she is back to the NRM. There is no way Muntu or Beti Kamanya would succeed in FDC with out the endorsement of Besigye just like no one can succeed for now, in the NRM without the support of President Museveni But all is not lost on Gen. Muntu who seems to have a national appeal which he never exploited fully due to the infighting , abuse and total betrayal that undermined his FDC Presidency .. I think the best way forward for Gen. Muntu is to either go back to NRM and work from within to start the succession conversation and also position himself as one of the possible candidates that can takeover from Gen. Museveni once the opportunity presents itself in the future ;or , he forms a loose political organisation , it might not necessary be a political party ( a party is an expensive venture to run and besides we have quite a number already). He can then employ that organisation to force a coalition with say NRM to take over leadership of the country starting in 2026. I'm saying starting 2026 because I'm not sure whether Gen. Museveni who will.be 81 at the time would still not be interested in having one more shot at the presidency. However, what is certain is that at that time , Museveni would be seriously thinking about who will take over from him and Muntu who would be , approaching 70 years of age could still be a viable prospect to do at least two terms. Right now , I don't think FDC especially under Besigye has the capacity whatsoever to wrestle political power from NRM let alone Museveni and apart from Jacob Olanya , Edward Sekandi by virtue of being Vice President ,I don't see an easy sell within the NRM to replace the big man . Whoever will takeover from Museveni in the NRM Party , will have to enlist the confidence and support of the security forces especially the army and for now I don't see any other better candidate than the amiable Gen. Mugisha Muntu. The writer is Communications, Media Consultant /Trainer And of The High Court of Uganda msserwanga@gmail.com Advocate

PICKING UP THE PIECES: NORTHERN UGANDA WOMEN EX-COMBATANTS RECOVER FROM EFFECTS OF WAR

By Moses Sserwanga 

in Northern Uganda 

Their lives were shattered by Jospeh Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) two decades bloody war but the women ex-combatants and child mothers in Gulu district- northern Uganda, are picking up the pieces to live a normal happy life and rebuild their war torn communities. 

With the restoration of peace in northern Uganda ,many of the ex-combatants who were forced to participate in the vicious war by the then marauding LRA rebels, have long returned to their villages to reconstruct their lives . 

Now living happily together , the traumatised women ex-combatants are tilling the land not only to produce for their homesteads but for the markets as well. They have even set up village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) of 30 members each to cultivate a culture of saving and investment . 

One such association is the Ribe Ryemo Can, Farmer and Drama group which operates in Ibakara Parish Koro sub-county Gulu district . The Association has 30 members , 24 of whom are women ex-combatants , child mothers and 6 men. Mr. Jacob Oloya (42) the Association’s secretary says  they have raised their savings portfolio considerably since they set up the savings association in 2009. 

“ We are now in position to lend to each other at an interest rate of 10%. With the savings we have managed to construct houses for the elderly members of our village, sponsored 52 primary seven candidates at Lakwatomer Primary School and we support war orphaned children to attend school,” a beaming Oloya stated while listing a number of achievements registered since the village came together to set up the their Village Savings and Loans Association. 

Because of their demonstrated efforts to rebuild their communities the women ex-combatants have now attracted support from local and international organisations. Through the Enhancing Business Competitiveness and Income for Women Ex- combatants project in Gulu , implemented by the YMCA Gulu branch with financial support form aBiTrust , the women who are organised in 15 groups of between 20-30 members are now supported to grow and produce groundnuts on large scale for the ready markets in the Acholi sub region and South Sudan . 

 Reniel Rwendeire the project coordinator, says that other activities carried out by the project include promotion of gender main streaming, large scale production of groundnuts and establishment of Village Savings and Loans Associations to improve the economic and social livelihood of people who are recovering from the effects of war . 

Mr. Rwendeire said that with the financial support of shs.52M from aBiTrust the project has managed to support the women ex-combatants in agronomy where they are encouraged to practice modern farming techniques to yield high quality produce for their homes and the market. “ We have trained them to engage in agriculture production as a business and many of them are now in position to sustain themselves , “ he explained. 

 Flanked by the project Finance and Administration Officer, Perez Akanyaijuka, Dora Ayaa , extension officer, Jackline Ajok Social Worker and Wiliam Osal (28) , Rwendeire said that the project has also set up 15 farmers’ field sites or demonstration centres which operate as learning points for famers to acquire knowledge and skills to carry out good farm practices, post harvest handling and pesticides management.

 “The ex-combatant are trained to adopt to better farming methods were they plant their crops in lines for better farm management when weeding and harvesting . We provide them with high quality yielding seeds to increase productivity . we want all the farmers to look at farming as a business ,” Ayaa explained. 

Through the gender mainstream element of the project, men are encouraged to join the VSLAs and help the women to open up land for large scale farming. Families are also encouraged to plan together, budget together and share the proceeds of their agricultural produce equitably . 

“You can clearly see that people are happy and have settled back to their villages. They are working hard to rebuild their communities and earning money too because of the support extended by aBiTrust through training, provision of improved seeds and the gender component where women and men treat each other as equals, “ Oloya said, adding that men are now involved in opening up land and farming as a household. 

The project has also provided a psychologist to help the communities recover from the post war trauma by encouraging community bonding. Service provision: Groups have been provided with 30 bicycles for the change agents who move around the villages to promote farming for the market and gender equality. provision of seeds ,15 knapsack sprayers, fertilisers TSP; G.nut paste machines ,G nut shellers, Tarpaulins and monthly allowances for change agents. 

Challenges: Both Oloya and Rwendeire noted that the communities are faced with the challenge of lack of land for large scale farming especially for the women are not supposed town land due to cultural practices in some communities, effects of climate change with erratic weather partners that affect planting seasons and limited access to agricultural credit. There is also high demand for specialised interventions like training, counselling and access to markets ,all of which need more human and financial resources to manage. 

Way forward: Rwendiere said that they are preparing the groups to form a bigger Sacco to attract financing from government to continue with the work they have started with the aBitrust support. We want the communities to be self-financing to sustain the good work they have attained so far with or without aBiTrust help , “ Rwendiere said. The writer is a media and communications consultant and advocate of High Court of Uganda msserwanga@gmail.com

UGANDA GOVERNMENT SHOULD FAST TRACK THE INDUSTRIALISATION POLICY

By Moses Sserwanga It is well over ten years since the National Industrialisation Policy was launched by President Yoweri Museveni in 2008 to transform Uganda from a dominantly peasant society into a modern , industrial and prosperous country .The Policy was aimed at facilitating the rapid transformation of Uganda’s economy through industrialisation by applying Science, Technology, Engineering and Innovations (STEI). But ever since the policy was launched little has been done to promoting home grown, targeted industries in the fields of science, technology, engineering and innovations (STEI) to boost economic growth. There is general indifference by some public servants when it comes to implementation of otherwise good government policies, programs and projects. The sheer lack of commitment or slow pace of implementation of government programs is costing the country dearly with the shilling continuing to depreciate against the dollar because there are few locally made goods for the export market. And yet if the National Industrialisation Policy was fully and rapidly implemented many locally bred industries would now be up and running and the transformation that can be triggered by these industries would go a long way to eliminate the unemployment problem that is widely spread among the youth. This worrying situation has also been highlighted in the recent report released by PwC about Uganda’s Economic Outlook for 2017. In their report, PWC notes that among the domestic factors responsible for the slowdown in economic growth, is the slow implementation of government projects which in return has delayed the realization of the economic benefits expected from these investments by the Ugandan people such as job opportunities. If this slow pace continues, PWC argues, it will deter growth of the economy, as was the case last financial year. “Therefore, in order to achieve the projected 5% economic growth there must be huge improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness in the way government investment projects are executed,” the report states . And when done properly, all the government projects across all sectors should have a huge multiplier effect on the economy. This is because every dollar spent on a government development oriented project, leads to an outcome of greater than two. With the right execution, all the public investment on development projects can have a powerful effect on the economy. The projects have the potential to raise output in the short term by boosting demand, creating jobs, and increasing the economy’s productive capacity in the long term. But it’s never too late to catch up on lost time. There seems to be light at the end of tunnel if the Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Mr. Matia Kasaijja, is to be held by his word when he stated, while launching the Uganda Investment Authority (UIA) five-year strategy plan 2016-2021 thus: the UIA Strategic Plan 2016-2021 is anchored in “operationalizing and incentivizing” all the 22 gazetted Industrial Parks, towards robust industrialization. With robust industrialization, he noted, Uganda shall export more “manufactured in Uganda” goods. This in turn will greatly improve the country ‘s trade balance and strengthen the shilling. It is also encouraging to note that one of the gazetted industrial parks is the Jinja Industrial and Business Park, where a local pioneer automotive company, Kiira Motors Corporation is slated to set up the first and biggest Vehicle Production Plant in the country. Once the plant is set up as promised in 2018 , the Automotive Value Chain will be such a huge enabler for wealth creation given the opportunities it will present right from suppliers of raw materials to service centres across the country . And this is only one industrial project. KMC and many other local industrial projects need every government’s support for Uganda to become a middle income country by 2020. The writer is Media and Communications Consultant/Trainer and Advocate of the High Court of Uganda. This article can also be found at msserwanga.blogspot.com

KIIRA MOTORS UNDERTAKES MAJOR STEPS TOWARD VEHICLE PLANT CONSTRUCTION

By MOSES SSERWANGA In yet another major step towards setting up the first and biggest original vehicle plant in Uganda, bids have been invited for the provision of consultancy services for a detailed design and specifications of the Kiira Motors Corporation (KMC) assembly facilities at the Jinja Industrial and Business Park. Bids have also been invited for the provision of electricity and water, some of the key utility services required at the KMC Vehicle Plant which will be constructed on their 100 acres of land at the Uganda Investment Authority Jinja Industrial and Business Park located on Plot 701, Block 2 Kagogwa village, Mawaito Parish, Kakira Town Council. These latest developments are set to jump-start Uganda’s nascent automotive industry which is expected to create 856 jobs: 403 out of the operational expenditure and 453 due to the capital expenditure. KMC shall also employ automotive industry experts in the fields of engineering, manufacturing, marketing and sales, legal, finance, leadership and management thus tackling the unemployment problem head on. “Kiira Motors is leading the industrialization, development and transformation of the country ‘s automotive sector. With the production of vehicles made in Uganda, the country is set to benefit enormously in terms of economic growth and national development,” Mr. Allan Muhumuza, the company’s Vice President in charge of Sales and Marketing, stated. Industry experts have indicated that the estimated KMC’s contribution to GDP is USD 247,621,086. The direct impact of the capital investment in the economy is USD 13,068,232 resulting into an indirect impact of USD 13,601,629. The induced effect creates an additional USD 5,333,972 due to increase in purchasing power, this leads to additional business sales in other sectors. The direct household incomes earned from the KMC Plant investment is USD 50,650,206 with the indirect and induced effects of USD 114,207,956 and USD 50,759,091giving a total of USD 215,617,253. Kiira Motors Corporation was incorporated as a private company for the automotive manufacturing in Uganda. Jointly owned by the government of Uganda through Uganda Development Corporation (UDC) and Makerere University with 96% and 4% shares respectively, the company was set up with a primary objective of championing automotive manufacturing in Uganda. And the company’s ultimate objective and mission has always been Vehicles Made in Uganda. It is expected that the company stands to gain a lot from government’s new policy of Buy Uganda Build Uganda (BUBU). The company last month announced that it was taking bus orders. Several prospective buyers mainly private school owners and tourism companies have expressed interest in the locally made buses that are expected to hit the market next year. The writer is a Communications and Media Consultant/trainer and advocate of High Court of Uganda. He can be reached: msserwanga@gmail.com This article can also be found at msserwanga.blogspot.com

HOW THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY HAS SUCCEEDED IN NEW EMERGING MARKETS

HOW THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY HAS SUCCEEDED IN NEW EMERGING MARKETS By Moses Sserwanga Global economic transformation and stability is now largely dependent on the existence of value adding industries such as the automotive industry, which have under the “Asian Miracle” clearly demonstrated that they are capable of driving and reinforcing economic growth. The importance of the automotive industry for emerging markets in Asia and Africa cannot be over emphasized given the fact that it had a global net value of US$1,654 billion by 2015, registering a 30% increase from 1995 to 2015. And yet the automotive industry is both an innovator and investor in technology advancement, investing over US$99.1 billion in research, development and production with a contribution of US$448 billion as government revenues. The realization of these benefits is majorly hinged on the premise of favorable industrialization policies adopted or proposed by governments or business entities in these emerging markets and this article seeks to understand how vehicle production countries have beaten the odds to become successful even with the global economic meltdown of the mid 2000s. In Asia, governments of major vehicle production countries such as China, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan, have played a virtual role to ensure that their automotive industries, do not only grow and survive the global economic turbulences but that such industries are at the center of growth for these now dubbed economic tigers. In these countries, several policy interventions have been put in place from provision of affordable financing, to infrastructure development, provision of investment incentives, encouragement on innovation at all level of high learning and industry development to local content development programs. In regard to provision of product tailored financial services, the automotive industries have benefited from the provision of liquidity and risk management services. Affordable credit has been made available to allow value chain actors (public sector) to invest beyond their cash on hand and allow customers to purchase vehicles without settling the entire cost in advance. For instance, South Korea and Taiwan have become important hubs of global manufacturing in the automotive industry with protectionism policies being applied by governments as a means to attract foreign direct investment while also fostering growth of the domestic industry which encourages utilization of local content across the value chain. The role of the South Korean government with regards to its automotive industry, is a good example to start with.The South Korean government began by playing an extensive role in nurturing and supporting its automotive industry during its infant stages through a combination of import-substitution and export-promotion policies. Inorder to realize its dream of producing vehicles locally, the South Korean government put in place the Automobile Industry Promotion Policy of 1962, and The Automobile Industry Protection Act to protect the infant industry. This barred foreign automakers from operating in the country, except through joint ventures with local business entities. The same policies were applied by Japan when its corporations began to produce more vehicles in the mid 50s. The Japanese government at the time took deliberate measures to restrict vehicle imports in order to promote the Japanese auto industry. It should be noted that this state-industry-support- approach did not go down well with the already established vehicle production countries like the United States of America which seldom criticized Japan's protectionism policies as being naïve and of little value since the vehicle market in Japan was very small at the time. Later, under the guidance of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, the Japanese auto industry began to weed out small companies through mergers and eventually reached its current state. Japan's annual vehicle production gradually increased and is now ranked third among the top six vehicle producing countries in world having put on the market 9.3 million vehicle units in 2015. Active promotion of technical education Extensive technical education is bound to raise the general level of technology. It is important to note that the Japanese government’s role in developing the automotive industry was in getting it started and nurturing its development. Policies addressing innovation in the automotive industry are geared towards the creation of network institutions in the public and private sectors whose activities and interactions foster knowledge or information flow between the automotive industry and the attendant enterprises This approach has seen the deliberate promotion of collaborations and joint research activities at universities and public research institutes leading to diffusion of knowledge and technology into other value chain actors. China, the world’s leading vehicle producer today has not been left behind in the state’s sponsorship of the automotive industry either. The China activist government policy has liberalized the Chinese automotive sector in some key respects — permitting foreign investment but also remaining firm that foreign manufacturers undertake joint ventures with local partners in order to obtain market access. The stated goal of the Chinese government over the years has been geared at creating a market dominated by a limited number of internationally competitive joint venture assemblers, supplied by local parts manufacturers, and producing to world standards. The results attained from these policy initiatives have been globally recognized with nearly three decades of rapid economic growth where the domestic Chinese auto industry has made substantial progress. The ripple effects have also been many leading to the emergency of independent domestic automotive manufacturers. Although because of the protectionism policies, the Chinese vehicle producers met some hurdles which included creation of their own designs and meeting world standards in terms of product quality, safety, and environmental features, the domestic manufacturers are expanding their market share and are slowly moving up the value chain. China’s annual vehicle output increased from less than two million vehicles in the late 1990s to over 28 million in 2016. Its auto industry is already a major force propelling the Chinese economy and its workforce, with an annual gross output at US$ 440 billion in 2009 and over 3.7 million workers in automotive production, according to China’s auto industry association and officials. The Stimulus packages that saved the automotive industry from collapse When the global economy mired in an economic slowdown with global vehicle production dropping more than 10 million units in 2009 from the record high of over 72 million units built in 2007, governments of the major vehicle producing countries such as the USA, China, and Japan, put in place radical economic stimulus packages that boosted their failing automotive industries. Again these were government led interventions to support and prevent their automotive industries, which are the engines of their respective economies, from collapsing. It was not long before the positive impact of such initiatives was seen. A clear example is that of China, following the stimulus package from the Chinese government, China’s auto industry registered a rapid growth in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, China produced more than 13.6 million vehicles, overtaking Japan to be the world’s largest producer. In 2010, the growth momentum continued, bringing China’s vehicle production to nearly 18.3 million units, almost doubling its 2008 out registered before the global economic meltdown. The Chinese government had opened up its auto market to international companies but only with the understanding that its domestic manufacturers would not be able to compete with the more sophisticated and experienced foreign rivals. Foreign automakers were allowed to enter the Chinese market only through joint ventures with local partners, often times state-owned companies (SOEs), each with no more than 50% controlled by a major foreign name plate automotive manufacturer. Some of these joint ventures have seen VW joining forces with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) and First Automotive Works Corporation (FAW). SAIC is also a joint venture partner of GM, while FAW is also a partner of Toyota. Honda and PSA Peugeot Citroen have both formed partnerships with Dongfeng Motor Corporation. It is the same story with Malaysia which used a state led auto development approach by building national champions before eventually commercializing and privatizing. All this shows that the automotive industry which is going to be a major force for economic emancipation in the East Africa region and on the African continent as a whole will require infant industry policy interventions for sustainability and ultimately competiveness. South Africa doesn’t allow the importation of used vehicles and this has protected its industry. South Africa policy framework is a transition from infant industry protection into a new open global economy i.e. industrial support and industrial competitiveness. The reason why Multinational Companies (MNC’s) take hold of the South African Economy is through an existing gap that is in form of technology and marketing gaps which are deemed the center of focus on attracting FDI to overcome the gaps. By way of their competitive advantage MNC possess technology and marketing capabilities that enable early production and export ability starting a positive trajectory of industrial growth for developing economies. This does not mean high value addition, a challenge South Africa faced, hence the call for black empowerment programs in their latest Automotive Production and Development Program. To overcome this problem small local firms that cannot access big overseas markets can only easily access them through the linkages held with lead OEMs who have access to global value chains. Their alternative is to penetrate and access neighboring emerging markets. South African policy aims to reduce its marketing gap through increased exportation strategy though the policy still faces a high technological gap that should be addressed by existing licensing agreements and joint ventures. In Kenya, you can’t import a vehicle that is more than eight years old. All these policies help protect the industry. Kenya’s automotive industry has grown especially in the passenger bus and truck/trailer categories because of such policies. Research and Development Capabilities The creation of a strong domestic R&D capability as an essential element in the development of a successful indigenous automotive industry enables both the transfer of intellectual property from international companies and the creation of intellectual property that can be the basis for a strong, export-oriented indigenous automotive industry. The key factors that have contributed strongly to the success of South Korea’s auto industry policy were export orientation and policy effectiveness. Export performance provided an objective criterion for government support. Despite the change in policy regime to import substitution in the 1970s, export-oriented development was still the top policy priority and various factors worked to soften the negative effects of distortive intervention. In addition the government went ahead and implemented the policies once the direction was set. As the government undertakes the Kiira Motors Corporation (KMC) investment with strategic outlook for developing the nascent automotive industry, it is interesting to observe key policy interventions benchmarked elsewhere which could engender sustainable realization of a domestic automotive industry value chain. ENDS

THE KENYA SUPREME COURT DECISION WILL HAVE DIRE CONSEQUENCES

THE KENYA SUPREME COURT DECISION WILL HAVE DIRE CONSEQUENCES The Supreme Court of Kenya has set precedent on the African Continent by overturning a presidential election result throwing the hitherto conservative jurisprudence in disarray. But the justices may have rushed to overturn the results which might lead to dire consequences for the East African nation. In the first place , all parties agree that the elections are determined at the polling stations . And it seems there were no problems at the polling stations . The petitioners’ case just like in the Mbabazi’s case centered around the transmission of the results from the polling stations to the tally center in Nairobi. If that was the focus of the dispute , the justices should then have recalled the results from the polling stations as contained in the tally sheets to verify , isolate those cases where there is a mismatch , and then reach a conclusion as to whether such inconsistencies affected the total overall figure in a substantial manner . Unfortunately the Court did not evaluate that evidence in the tally sheets, they didn't verify and instead rushed to play to the galley and nullified the same. The Courts decision then looked more of a political than a legal one . The court wanted to set a precedent as being the first to do that and get the rave reviews which they are now enjoying at a huge cost that awaits the country . Many jurisdictions not only in Africa but America , South Africa, Nigeria, Canada , India among other , have been very reluctant to overturn presidential elections due to the financial , legal and social political ramifications not forgetting the security and stability of a state . Now, the Kenyan decision has many both positive and negative ramifications but will highlight a few negatives ones . Let me start with the legal ones , the courts are going to.be flooded by a multitude of petitions from the local governors and other constituent elections . Because any smart lawyer will argue that if the Supreme Court has declared that the presidential elections lacked integrity and all, how then can the local elections be clean when.it was the same Electoral Commission that conducted those elections as well. Secondly, basing on the judgment , the commission should be disbanded and the opposition has already filed a suit to that effect. That suit will be appealed up to the Supreme Court and when it is successful , then the electoral commission will have to be disbanded and a new one appointed with new electoral officials across the country . Question then is will the country be in position to hold fresh elections in 60 days as required by law ? Again the answer to that question might be in the negative . That will then mean the parliament will have to amend the constitution to enlarge time . So we don’t see Kenyans getting over this till the new year meanwhile, they won't have an effective government for that period because Uhuru is now a lame duck as we all know it . Lastly, we wait to see the guidelines that will be set by court in its detailed judgment that will have to.be followed to ensure that the next results from the next elections will be accepted by all parties. This is because there cannot be a flawless election anywhere in the world that's why the substantially test was developed and adopted in many jurisdictions. But you can only apply that test if the court is willing to verify the transmitted results . In the case of Kenya , court didn't want to do it because of the time and resources involved and instead took the easy path of throwing it back to the voters and the cost is going to.be much more than if the court had endured to verify the results at the polling stations because that's where the winner is determined and not in the process of transmission .